What to watch on Super Tuesday: Why the delegate math shows Haley has little room to stop Trump

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Former President Donald Trump enters Super Tuesday pinch a large delegate lead complete erstwhile U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley successful nan GOP statesmanlike title — and by nan extremity of nan night, he will apt astir find himself closing successful connected nan magic number he needs to officially extremity nan contest: 1,215 delegates. 

Haley has won conscionable 1 title — Washington, D.C.’s — and her reliance connected a conjugation that leans heavy connected affluent, college-educated suburbanites (including non-Republicans who whitethorn simply spot her arsenic a conveyance to registry disgust pinch Trump) faces 2 mighty Super Tuesday headwinds.

First, galore contests are successful states pinch demographic profiles decidedly unfavorable to Haley but correct successful Trump’s white, working-class wheelhouse. And second, moreover wherever nan demographics are Haley-friendly, statement rules successful galore cases limit non-Republicans’ information and each but require outright majorities to cod delegates.

While a beardown showing successful New Hampshire netted her a important stock of nan state’s delegates, much states coming up this period person delegate rules for illustration those successful South Carolina, wherever 40% of nan ballot netted Haley conscionable 6% of nan state’s delegates. In different words, moreover comparatively beardown showings aren’t apt to construe into meaningful delegate hauls connected Super Tuesday if she can’t triumph states outright. And if Haley can’t either broaden her conjugation aliases supercharge friends turnout, she’ll decorativeness Tuesday buried beneath a Trump delegate avalanche. 

To exemplify nan standard of Haley’s challenge, we person looked intimately astatine nan demographics, information rules and delegate allocation formulas for each GOP caucus and superior taking spot Tuesday and successful nan adjacent activity of contests connected March 12 and March 19. For each one, we person generated our champion estimate of each candidate’s delegate ceiling and floor. These estimates are much creation than subject — but we will laic retired our champion explanation, reporting and study successful each state. 

There whitethorn beryllium areas of disagreement successful 1 authorities aliases another, but nan wide conclusion is unavoidable: Unless Haley someway finds a measurement to triumph outright majorities successful aggregate states, her run will beryllium overwhelmed by nan cold, difficult realities of delegate math. 

Keep reference for our state-by-state study of what’s connected pat connected Super Tuesday — and spot really yours compares pinch ours.

Super Tuesday

Alaska — 29 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 29, Haley 0

Haley champion case: Trump 23, Haley 6

A caucus constricted to registered Republicans is nan worst group of conditions Haley could face, pinch a mini beingness of highly engaged halfway GOP voters holding sway. In 2016, nan past contested Republican race, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas won Alaska’s caucuses narrowly complete Trump, pinch their mixed stock of nan ballot reaching 70%. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, nan 2016 campaigner whose conjugation astir resembles Haley’s, took only 15%.

GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski did endorse Haley, but Haley’s existent glimmer of dream present is that nan 29 delegates are awarded proportionally — but only for candidates who clear a 13% threshold. That’s nary guarantee fixed that Haley won’t person immoderate independents aliases Democrats to thin on. But she’ll locomotion distant pinch astatine slightest a fistful of delegates if she clears that bar.

Alabama — 50 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 50, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A 

The state’s unfastened superior allows Haley to pat into non-Republicans, including Trump-hostile voters who scheme to ballot for President Joe Biden successful nan fall. That should boost her stock of nan ballot somewhat, but that benignant of elector is successful short proviso successful Alabama, and it’s not apt to matter successful nan delegate math. 

Twenty-nine delegates are dished retired based connected nan statewide result, and Trump tin declare each of them pinch astatine slightest 50% of nan vote. The remainder are parceled retired by legislature district, 3 apiece successful each of nan 7 districts. Again, finishing pinch 50% of nan ballot successful a territory gives a campaigner each 3 territory delegates. While Haley tin leverage nan aforesaid rules that allowed her to transportation 1 territory and triumph 3 delegates successful South Carolina, nary of Alabama’s districts travel adjacent to fitting the unsocial demographic makeup that made that 1 South Carolina territory fertile pro-Haley turf.

Arkansas — 40 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 39, Haley 1

Haley champion case: N/A 

The rules successful this GOP superior are akin to those successful galore different Super Tuesday states, and they are apt to beryllium an impenetrable obstruction to Haley’s collecting much than a azygous delegate. Twenty-seven delegates are awarded based connected nan statewide result, pinch conscionable a elemental mostly needed to gobble up each of them. A twelve much are divided arsenic among 4 legislature districts, but a campaigner who wins a elemental mostly successful 1 territory wins each 3 delegates there. 

Demographically, neither nan authorities arsenic a full nor immoderate individual territory features thing approaching nan operation that has powered Haley elsewhere, moreover successful an unfastened primary. She has leaned heavy connected white, college-educated voters, while Trump has racked up monolithic margins successful areas wherever achromatic voters without four-year degrees predominate. And successful Arkansas, that pro-Trump demographic reigns supreme. 

However, immoderate campaigner who breaks 20% of nan statewide ballot wins a azygous delegate. Haley should beryllium capable to do that, but not overmuch else. If you want to spot a adjacent title successful Arkansas, you’re astir apt amended disconnected heading to Hot Springs to return successful nan action astatine Oaklawn Park.

California — 169 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 169, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A 

A gigantic, deep-blue authorities pinch ample pockets of economically upscale, college-educated voters is, astatine first glance, a ripe target for Haley. But nan authorities GOP’s rules make it each but intolerable for her to triumph delegates. 

First, it’s a closed superior — nan immense chunk of independent voters who fresh correct into Haley’s demographic guidelines can’t participate. Instead, nan vastly smaller beingness of registered Republicans, a group Trump has been winning by astir 50 percent points successful primaries truthful far, will formed each of nan ballots. 

What’s more, nan California GOP changed its allocation rules past year, scrapping a format that doled retired astir delegates by legislature territory successful favour of what efficaciously amounts to a winner-take-all superior based solely connected nan statewide result. As a result, each Trump has to do to declare each 169 delegates is triumph a elemental mostly of nan vote. In a closed primary, that’s a beautiful debased barroom for him to clear. 

Colorado — 37 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 27, Haley 10

Haley champion case: Trump 21, Haley 16 

The assortment of delegate outcomes present is limited, because each 39 delegates are awarded proportionally to candidates winning astatine slightest 20% of nan vote. With independents participating (but Democrats not allowed to transverse over) and nan suburbs of Denver rich | pinch college-educated, white-collar professionals, Haley tin easy transverse that threshold. 

But conscionable really precocious tin she climb? Working successful Haley’s favour is nan state’s vote-by-mail system, nether which independent voters were each sent Republican superior ballots. Will nan easiness of filling retired ballots astatine location and dropping them successful mailboxes mean much Haley-friendly/Trump-hostile independents participate? That’s Haley’s champion hope. 

Still, Haley capped retired astatine 43% successful New Hampshire nether moreover much favorable demographic conditions. If she tin deed 40%, it would astir apt beryllium capable to drawback 16 delegates. And if nan wide independent information she’s banking connected fizzles and she conscionable hardly crosses nan 20% line, her delegate haul would autumn to astir 10. Colorado’s delegate rules mean nan applicable quality betwixt a 50-point Trump triumph and a 20-point Trump triumph conscionable isn’t that much. 

Maine — 20 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 20, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

Here’s different authorities wherever a campaigner who breaks 50% wins each delegate. And Maine is acold friendlier to Trump, who carried 1 of its 2 legislature districts successful nan 2016 and 2020 wide elections, than immoderate different New England state. Anchored by nan aged mill towns of Bangor and Lewiston and taking successful a wide agrarian swath that contains 1 of nan highest concentrations of achromatic voters without assemblage degrees successful nan country, Maine’s 2nd District is ideally suited to Trump, who should rack up monolithic margins there.

The remainder of nan authorities does see immoderate well-to-do ZIP codes, particularly on nan confederate coast, wherever Haley figures to score. But location are besides plentifulness much blue-collar pockets for Trump to tap. Three times since 2010, nan Republican electorate present has chosen Paul LePage, an inflammatory, Trump-style populist, arsenic its nominee for governor. For Trump, attaining a elemental mostly should beryllium nary problem.

Massachusetts — 40 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 40, Haley 0

Haley champion case: Haley 40, Trump 0

This is fundamentally a winner-take-all contest, pinch each 40 of nan state’s delegates going to immoderate campaigner breaking 50% of nan vote. And while it’s a agelong to float nan anticipation of Haley’s really carrying Massachusetts, it should astatine slightest beryllium mentioned, if only because of nan bonzer imbalance betwixt nan number of registered Republicans successful nan authorities (a specified 9% of nan electorate) and nan number of independents (60%) who tin participate if they want. 

Trump figures to cleanable up among that halfway group of registered Republicans — voters who turned powerfully against nan state’s Republican erstwhile governor, Charlie Baker, owed successful nary mini portion to his outspoken disapproval of Trump. Facing nan imaginable of conclusion successful his ain party’s primary, Baker declined to activity a 3rd word successful 2022. Trump besides easy won nan state’s superior successful 2016, claiming 49% of nan vote, 31 points up of his nearest foe. 

Still, location are those independents. With specified a immense excavation of them, including galore Trump-phobic and college-educated suburbanites, there’s a slim chance that conscionable capable of them spot nan GOP superior arsenic an enticing opportunity to ballot against Trump and travel retired for Haley. It would return a batch of them to offset Trump’s halfway Republican spot — but again, location are a batch of them. 

That having been said, nan scant GOP superior polling conducted successful Massachusetts has shown Trump consistently complete 50%. And according to nan caput of state’s office, nan immense mostly of nan (many) vote-by-mail ballots received truthful acold person been for nan Democratic primary. To get a building from nan state’s governmental past, it would return a “Massachusetts Miracle” for Haley to propulsion this off. 

Minnesota — 39 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 39, Haley 0

Haley champion case: Trump 17, Haley 14, 8 unbound

Complicated rules mean nan Land of 10,000 Lakes has astir 10,000 delegate scenarios. The 15 at-large and 24 legislature territory delegates are awarded proportionally, but solely by nan statewide results. A campaigner tin triumph each nan state’s delegates pinch a statewide consequence supra 80%. But short of that, things get tricky. 

Finishing supra 60% nets a campaigner 2 delegates from each legislature district, and nan second-place finisher gets nan 3rd delegate from each district, provided he aliases she wins astatine slightest 20% of nan statewide vote. 

If nan victor falls location beneath 60% statewide (or nan second-place finisher falls beneath 20% pinch a victor beneath 80%), nan authorities would nonstop immoderate unbound delegates to nan Republican convention.

This is an unfastened superior successful which Rubio won and Trump placed 3rd successful 2016. So Haley’s expected to prime up immoderate delegates here, moreover if a triumph is unlikely.  

North Carolina — 74 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 60, Haley 14

Haley champion case: Trump 55, Haley 19 

Haley has a fewer things going for her successful North Carolina. First, there’s nary statewide winner-take-all period here, truthful Haley will nett immoderate delegates if she tin eclipse 20%. Congressional delegates are awarded proportionally, too, arsenic agelong arsenic 1 campaigner doesn’t break two-thirds of nan vote. And independents tin participate successful nan primary, arsenic well.

A fewer demographically Haley-friendly metro areas — Raleigh-Durham-Cary and Charlotte — could let her to prime up immoderate delegates here. But nan proportional rules mean there’s a ceiling, too, arsenic North Carolina Republicans are mostly connected committee pinch a Trump-friendly marque of politics. Trump’s preferred campaigner for governor, Mark Robinson, has stoked contention passim his governmental career, and he is apt to fastener up his information Tuesday, arsenic well, successful 1 of nan astir watched governor’s races this fall.

Oklahoma — 43 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 43, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

With nan objection of Washington, D.C.’s, closed primaries are Haley’s bane, pinch nary independents aliases Democrats disposable for her to offset Trump’s overwhelming advantage among registered Republicans.

A elemental mostly is each that’s needed to declare each 28 statewide delegates, and nan state’s 5 legislature districts besides grant 3 delegates apiece to nan mostly winners there. There is immoderate existent property astir Oklahoma City pinch Haley-friendly demographics, and nether different rules, possibly she’d beryllium competitory successful 1 district. But not successful a closed superior system.

Tennessee: 58 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 58, Haley 0

Haley champion case: Trump 44, Haley 14

Tennessee holds an unfastened superior pinch a twist — voters don’t registry by party, truthful they tin technically ballot successful immoderate superior they want, but a authorities rule enacted past twelvemonth requires polling places to pass voters it’s forbidden to ballot successful a superior without being a “bona fide member” of that party. The rule could dissuade non-Republican voters from crossing over, truthful nan state’s results whitethorn not look for illustration those of different states without statement registration. 

The statewide separator will beryllium very important, arsenic Tennessee will grant each of its 31 at-large delegates to a campaigner who eclipses two-thirds of nan statewide vote. Otherwise, it will grant those delegates proportionally. If Haley tin execute present for illustration she did successful South Carolina, winning 40% of nan vote, she’ll triumph a fistful of delegates. But if her Tennessee separator is much for illustration Michigan’s (27%), she risks getting blown retired successful position of delegates. She besides has to support an oculus connected her little threshold, arsenic nan authorities requires hitting nan 20% people to person delegates. 

Haley’s best-case script involves her keeping Trump nether two-thirds and past snagging a delegate aliases 2 successful nan Nashville-area 5th District.

Texas: 161 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 155, Haley 6

Haley champion case: Trump 146, Haley 15

While Texas has an unfastened primary, nan rightward displacement of nan authorities GOP electorate, arsenic reflected successful nan intraparty civilian warfare that has been brewing successful caller years, suggests a mostly of nan statewide ballot — and 36 of nan state’s 47 at-large delegates — will beryllium a fastener for Trump. The remaining 11 will beryllium awarded based connected a ballot astatine nan party's convention, truthful those delegates whitethorn not beryllium allocated yet (and could beryllium subtracted from Trump's totals above). But if Trump wins a mostly of nan statewide vote, he'll beryllium nan dense favourite to triumph those remaining delegates astatine nan convention.

Then things get absorbing successful nan 38 legislature districts, because each will grant 3 delegates — 2 to a plurality winner, 3 to a mostly victor — based connected nan results successful each individual district. Texas is nan largest authorities whose superior isn’t expected to usability arsenic a de facto winner-take-all contest. (See California and its rules above.)

The Texas rules springiness Haley a fewer opportunities astir nan awesome metropolitan areas, peculiarly successful nan highly knowledgeable 37th District successful Austin and nan 7th successful nan Houston area. But successful a one-on-one race, she doesn’t person overmuch room to turn past that.    

Utah — 40 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 40, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

Caucuses haven’t been benignant to Haley, putting her astatine an contiguous disadvantage here. Independents do person nan opportunity to participate if they show up and alteration their statement registrations connected site. But that requirement, on pinch nan truth that voting successful nan caucuses will require attending a gathering astatine a fixed time, will surely trim into nan number who really return part.

It’s besides existent that Utah hasn’t been benignant to Trump. Utah’s ample Mormon population, typically a stalwart Republican group, proved remarkably resistant to him successful 2016, erstwhile he vanished 3rd successful nan caucuses, 55 points down Cruz successful first place. That fall, Trump earned conscionable 45% of nan ballot successful Utah — still capable to win, but besides nan third-lowest stock ever recorded by a GOP statesmanlike campaigner successful nan state’s history.

But that was then. While immoderate person remained dispute to Trump, galore different Republicans person made their measurement to his bandwagon. As president successful 2020, Trump took 87% of nan GOP superior ballot moreover pinch a protestation campaigner — erstwhile Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld — connected nan ballot. Trump’s astir salient Republican professional successful nan state, Sen. Mitt Romney, has seen his ain opinionated pinch Republican voters erode.  

As successful galore different Super Tuesday states, a elemental mostly is each Trump will request to gobble up each 40 delegates. And Republican Gov. Spencer Cox, who has refused to endorse Trump and urged his statement to prime a different candidate, says there’s “no doubt” Trump will execute that. 

Vermont — 17 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 17, Haley 0

Haley champion case: Haley 17, Trump 0

Vermont whitethorn beryllium Haley’s champion changeable astatine a Super Tuesday victory. The authorities has nary statement registration, meaning anyone tin ballot successful nan GOP primary, and it’s a deep-blue authorities pinch a unique, highly engaged governmental culture. At slightest successful theory, location are hordes of anti-Trump voters present who don’t deliberation of themselves arsenic Republicans but could beryllium motivated to ballot successful nan GOP superior to definitive their profound distaste for him.

Haley’s chances remainder connected that. And she’s helped by nan deficiency of play connected nan Democratic broadside and nan endorsement of nan state’s mean Republican governor, Phil Scott.

Scott is serving his 4th two-year word and has survived superior challenges acknowledgment successful nary mini portion to nan benignant of crossover voters Haley needs. There besides remains a strain of aged school, middle-of-the-road Yankee Republicanism successful quirky Vermont: In nan 2016 GOP primary, John Kasich vanished conscionable 2 points down Trump (who won pinch only 32%), and nan mixed ballot stock for Kasich and Rubio reached 50% — higher than successful almost immoderate different title that year. Both candidates attracted nan type of upscale, college-educated support that Haley has this year.

But while nan ingredients for a imaginable Haley triumph are mostly present, Trump does person his ain strengths. For one, there’s a sizable organization of working-class achromatic voters without assemblage degrees, his halfway demographic, peculiarly successful nan state’s Northeast Kingdom. Trump carried Essex County, nan bosom of that region, successful some nan 2016 and nan 2020 elections — aft it had doubly voted for Barack Obama. Overall, 41% of achromatic adults successful nan authorities person assemblage degrees; that’s 6 points little than successful South Carolina’s 1st District, which Haley narrowly carried complete Trump connected Feb. 24. There’s besides a University of New Hampshire canvass that conscionable past week put Trump up of Haley by 30 points successful Vermont. 

The rules present grant each 17 delegates to anyone who tin attain a elemental majority. It’s very apt that either Trump aliases Haley will, though different candidates are connected nan ballot. In a tight race, it’s conceivable they could some autumn short of nan threshold, successful which lawsuit delegates would beryllium divided proportionally. 

Virginia — 48 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 42, Haley 6

Haley champion case: Haley 27, Trump 21

It would beryllium easy to spot really Haley’s triumph successful nan Washington, D.C., superior would transportation complete to momentum successful Northern Virginia, pinch important blocs of Trump-resistant members of nan master moving class. But there’s a batch much to Virginia beyond nan Washington suburbs. Overall, nan personification who gets 50% aliases more, statewide and successful each legislature district, will triumph nan delegates successful Virginia. 

Haley was polling astatine 43% successful nan authorities successful nan astir caller Roanoke College poll. In her best-case scenario, she tin triumph nan state. On nan different hand, successful 2016, Rubio and Kasich mixed to propulsion successful 42% of nan authorities vote. And successful 2024, it’s difficult to spot Trump falling nether nan 50% threshold.

Beyond Super Tuesday

That’s nan business done Super Tuesday. But we person a prize for loyal readers: Here’s our outlook done nan adjacent 2 weeks of nan contest, erstwhile Trump could deed nan magic number to go nan presumptive nominee.

American Samoa: 9 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 9, Haley 0

Haley champion case: Trump 0, Haley 0, unbound 9

This territory is holding a territorial caucus, which is typically bully news for Trump. 

But there’s an important wrinkle: The delegates aren’t ever bound. Party rules opportunity nan delegates will beryllium “instructed” by a caucus solution arsenic to nan “disposition of their vote.” In 2016, nan territorial delegates started disconnected arsenic unbound but ended up announcing they’d all backmost Trump by May. 

The champion lawsuit for Trump is that nan 9 delegates determine to backmost him for illustration they did successful 2016. Haley’s champion stake is apt to beryllium that they enactment unbound — and that nan caucus comes and goes without Trump’s getting immoderate person to nan nomination. 

Georgia: 59 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 52, Haley 7

Haley champion case: Trump 43, Haley 16

Trump has had a rocky clip successful Georgia. He and his friends look charges location related to their attempts to overturn nan 2020 statesmanlike election, and his preferred candidates mislaid primaries for governor, lawyer wide and caput of authorities successful 2022, arsenic good arsenic nan wide predetermination for nan U.S. Senate months later. The state’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp, remains popular contempt having distanced himself from Trump. 

An unfastened superior successful a authorities wherever Trump has that overmuch baggage could springiness Haley an opening. But it would beryllium reliable to spot her doing overmuch amended than her capacity successful South Carolina, wherever she won astir 40%. 

While 17 at-large delegates will beryllium doled retired proportionally to each campaigner who hits 20%, nan remaining 42 will beryllium divided up crossed legislature districts. And nan campaigner who wins 50% successful a territory will triumph each 3 delegates.

The demographics look champion for Haley successful nan 4th, 5th and 6th districts successful suburban Atlanta — Rubio and Kasich mixed for complete 50% of nan ballot successful DeKalb and Fulton counties successful 2016. But again, nan best-case script for Haley is limiting damage, not winning nan state. 

Hawaii: 19 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 16, Haley 3

Haley champion case: Trump 13, Haley 6

Another closed caucus gives nan advantage to Trump. He won 42% of nan caucus ballot present successful 2016, pinch Cruz winning 33%, while nan much constitution Rubio and Kasich mixed for 24%.

Expect Trump to get ballot stock astir akin to what he and Cruz mixed to get that year, arsenic he continues to bask sky-high polling among Republicans, nan only voters who get to participate here. 

Mississippi: 40 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 40, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

On paper, an unfastened superior could look for illustration bully news for Haley. But nan delegate rules time off her small room. A campaigner who hits 50% statewide successful Mississippi wins each delegate successful nan state, meaning nan superior could beryllium astir arsenic competitory arsenic an early-season Ole Miss out-of-conference shot game. 

Washington: 43 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 40, Haley 3

Haley champion case: N/A

In different closed primary, Trump is nan dense favourite to triumph nan mostly here, which would springiness him each 13 at-large delegates (assuming he eclipses 50% successful nan two-way race). The authorities awards its 30 legislature territory delegates by akin rules, giving them retired proportionally successful each territory unless a campaigner eclipses 50% and wins each 3 from that district. 

Washington’s 7th District, successful Seattle, is nan only 1 pinch importantly favorable demographics for Haley. A triumph present would nett her 3 delegates, and that seems apt unless nan bottommost falls out. 

Northern Mariana Islands: 9 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 9, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

Another closed caucus and different title successful which Haley’s underwater favorability pinch Republicans whitethorn put her retired of contention. 

Guam: 9 delegates

Trump and Haley champion case: N/A

Guam is 1 of nan fewer states sending unbound delegates to nan convention, truthful they won’t beryllium allocated to 1 campaigner and will beryllium free to ballot arsenic they wish connected nan normal floor. Individual delegates whitethorn person individual loyalties, but they won’t beryllium locked successful for 1 candidate. 

Arizona: 43 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 43, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

There’s conscionable nary grounds that Haley tin triumph a closed superior successful a authorities whose Republican Party has shifted rightward, moreover arsenic nan authorities grows progressively competitory successful wide elections. Primary voters who chose Republicans Kari Lake, Mark Finchem and Blake Masters successful cardinal races past rhythm aren’t apt to backmost Haley successful this winner-take-all race. 

Florida: 125 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 125, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

It’s nan aforesaid communicative successful Florida, Trump’s adopted home. It’s difficult to cobble together a way for thing other to hap isolated from Trump’s winning it — conscionable for illustration he did successful 2016 complete Rubio, nan home-state candidate. 

Illinois: 64 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 61, Haley 3

Haley champion case: Trump 51, Haley 13

This is efficaciously an unfastened primary, but 1 Trump won successful 2016, combining pinch Cruz for 69% of nan vote. The victor present takes location each 13 at-large delegates, and past it gets complicated.

That’s because legislature territory delegates get elected individually connected nan state’s superior ballot — nan ballot includes individual names alongside nan candidates they’ve said they’ll support. With truthful galore permutations, an nonstop divided is difficult to predict. But Trump’s 39% decorativeness present successful 2016 netted him 78% of nan delegates, truthful he doesn’t request to put up a large statewide number to triumph nan immense mostly of nan delegates. 

Kansas: 39 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 39, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

This is different (effectively) closed contest, arsenic non-Republicans had to register pinch nan statement by Feb. 20 to participate successful nan primary. That spells bad news for Haley. 

Ohio: 79 delegates

Trump champion case: Trump 79, Haley 0

Haley champion case: N/A

Ohio voters tin participate successful whichever party’s statesmanlike superior they want — nan only stipulation being that by doing so, they are registering pinch nan statement done that predetermination cycle.

Kasich won nan state’s superior successful 2016 pinch 47% of nan vote. But Haley will beryllium hard-pressed to eclipse that successful a one-on-one title successful a winner-take-all authorities — and particularly successful a authorities wherever she’s not nan existent governor, arsenic Kasich was.

The large picture

Adding our best-case scenarios for Haley and Trump together, here’s our estimate of nan unsmooth scope of imaginable outcomes successful nan delegate title done adjacent week:

Trump’s champion script has him conscionable sneaking past nan decorativeness statement only a week aft Super Tuesday, pinch Haley adding only a fewer twelve stray delegates to her tally. But moreover nether Haley’s best-case results, she would still autumn miles down Trump and hold his triumph by only a week aliases two. The Republican nominating strategy is designed to nutrient a speedy and decisive winner, pinch fewer rewards for finishing 2nd successful astir states — and it’s apt to activity arsenic designed complete nan adjacent fewer weeks.

Steve Kornacki

Steve Kornacki, writer of "The Red and nan Blue: 1990s and nan Birth of Political Tribalism," is simply a nationalist governmental analogous for NBC News and MSNBC.

Ben Kamisar

Ben Kamisar is simply a lawman governmental editor successful NBC's Political Unit. 

Adam Noboa

Producer astatine MSNBC pinch Steve Kornacki.