The key numbers to know from the Super Tuesday exit polls

Trending 1 month ago

Donald Trump is continuing to rack up wins crossed nan representation connected Super Tuesday, nan biggest superior time of nan statesmanlike race.

NBC News exit polls supply immoderate clues into nan conjugation nan erstwhile president has put together that has allowed him to cruise done nan GOP nominating conflict — and besides wherever his anemic spots could beryllium successful November. 

The exit polls surveyed voters successful Virginia, North Carolina and California. So far, NBC News projects that Trump will triumph Virginia and North Carolina complete erstwhile U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. California polls adjacent astatine 11 p.m. ET. 

The polls besides surveyed voters who participated successful California’s Senate superior and North Carolina’s GOP superior for governor, wherever Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is projected to win nan Republican nomination. 

Here are immoderate cardinal takeaways from nan NBC News exit polls truthful far: 

Trump’s power pinch nan GOP base 

Trump’s fame among GOP guidelines voters propelled him to triumph successful nan early superior states, and again connected Super Tuesday. In Virginia, Trump won 79% of self-described GOP voters, who made up 60% of nan electorate, while Haley won conscionable 19% of Republicans. And Trump won nan immense mostly (77%) of blimpish voters successful Virginia, who made up two-thirds of nan Virginia superior electorate.

In North Carolina, self-described Republicans made up 62% of nan superior electorate and Trump won 85% of those voters. Trump besides won 81% of self-described blimpish voters, who made up a whopping 78% of nan GOP superior electorate successful nan state.

Many GOP voters decided agelong agone who they would support

The North Carolina and Virginia exit polls besides show a akin inclination to erstwhile GOP contests: a mostly of voters decided who they would support earlier nan superior became a two-person title betwixt Trump and Haley. And astir of those voters supported Trump. 

In Virginia, astir two-thirds of GOP superior voters (64%) said they decided who to support earlier nan commencement of this year, meaning earlier nan first superior votes were formed successful January. Trump overwhelmingly won those voters, pinch 78% backing nan erstwhile president. 

In North Carolina, 51% of GOP superior voters said they decided who to support earlier this year, pinch 81% of them supporting Trump.

Some informing signs for Trump

Even arsenic Trump further builds his monolithic delegate lead, nan exit polls do supply immoderate imaginable informing signs for him looking up to nan wide election, particularly among much mean and well-educated voters. 

In some Virginia and North Carolina, astir one-third of superior voters answered “no” to nan mobility of whether they will ballot for nan GOP nominee sloppy of who it is (31% successful Virginia and 34% successful North Carolina). 

Similar shares of superior voters — 37% successful Virginia and 31% successful North Carolina — said that Trump, presently facing 4 indictments, would not beryllium fresh to beryllium president if he is convicted of a crime. 

Trump besides struggled among college-educated voters compared to nan broader superior electorate, which could beryllium a imaginable informing motion arsenic well-educated voters person go cardinal to nan Democrats’ coalition. 

Trump won 47% of voters pinch a assemblage grade successful Virginia, losing them to Haley by 3 points. He did triumph college-educated voters successful North Carolina by 15 points, winning 56% of them.

Early clues astir nan North Carolina governor’s race

The GOP superior exit polls besides supply immoderate early signals astir North Carolina’s title for governor. The title to switch term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to beryllium nan astir competitory gubernatorial title this year.

Trump had endorsed Robinson successful nan GOP primary, precocious describing nan lieutenant governor, who has a history of making violative comments, arsenic “Martin Luther King connected steroids.” 

The North Carolina exit canvass showed Robinson’s ain triumph was fueled by a batch of nan aforesaid groups that supported Trump successful nan statesmanlike superior contest, which could beryllium a motion that his destiny successful November will beryllium intimately tied to nan erstwhile president’s. 

Robinson won 73% of Trump voters successful nan superior — 1 of his champion performances among various elector groups. His Trump-voter stock was 2nd only to those voters who clasp nan unfounded belief that President Joe Biden did not legitimately triumph nan 2020 election, of which Robinson won 75%. 

But Robinson’s worst performances successful nan superior were among voters who described themselves arsenic moderates aliases liberals. He won conscionable 35% of those voters connected Tuesday, per nan exit poll. 

NBC News projects that Robinson will look Democrat Josh Stein, nan authorities lawyer general, successful November. 


Bridget Bowman

Bridget Bowman is simply a lawman editor for NBC's Political Unit.

Stephanie Perry

Stephanie Perry is nan head of exit polling astatine NBC News.