5 issues ahead of Mexico's presidential election

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MEXICO CITY — Mexico is almost surely astir to get its first female president.

Ruling-party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum leads successful polls on the title starring to nan June 2 vote. The second-place campaigner is besides a woman. A man moving for a mini 3rd statement fundamentally has nary chance of winning.

Popular President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is barred by rule from moving for different six-year term, and Sheinbaum is moving for his Morena party. Businesswoman, legislator and Indigenous Affairs official Xóchitl Gálvez has an uphill battle, backed by a conjugation of each nan main guidance parties.

Sheinbaum, Mexico City’s erstwhile mayor, has a doctorate successful power engineering and a agelong profession successful leftist politics. Gálvez helped her family by trading tamales successful nan thoroughfare arsenic a girl. She went connected to gain a grade successful machine engineering and commencement her ain tech companies.

Whoever wins, present are nan issues and stakes.

How could Mexico's predetermination impact migration?

Most migrants to nan United States travel complete nan separator pinch Mexico to Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California. Mexico has agreed to immoderate things that it isn’t legally obligated to do, specified arsenic deploying its National Guard to apprehension migrants, and accepting nan return of non-Mexicans who walk done connected their measurement to nan U.S.

Migration isn’t overmuch of an rumor successful Mexico, extracurricular of calls for nan adjacent curen of Mexicans successful nan U.S. Mexico’s adjacent president will almost surely person latitude successful deciding either to extremity cooperating pinch nan United States, aliases ace down harder connected migrants heading north. Either would beryllium a large alteration and migration is already definite to beryllium a cardinal rumor for whoever wins nan White House successful November.

Could Mexico's ballot impact nan travel of drugs?

Instead of confronting nan supplier cartels, López Obrador has adopted what is for him nan pragmatic argumentation of expanding authorities hand-outs to drain nan excavation of recruits for cartels seeking gunmen. But galore poor, addicted aliases neglected youths tin still beryllium convinced to prime up a gun.

Under López Obrador, anti-drug practice has been constricted by nationalism; he doesn’t for illustration nan DEA successful his country and denies that Mexico produces fentanyl, nan opioid that kills complete 70,000 Americans each year.

The adjacent president could return that position to an moreover greater utmost aliases determine to cooperate much arsenic grounds mounts that drug cartels are incompatible pinch home peace.

How will Mexico's ballot impact nan economy?

In nan 1980s, nan United States could frighten to adjacent nan separator immoderate clip nan Mexican authorities displeased Washington. Those days are over. U.S. appliance, auto-parts and automotive factories person moved to Mexico, and they request regular shipments of parts.

As López Obrador put it, “they couldn’t last, possibly a day, but not a week” pinch a closed border. Mexico — not China — is now nan United States’ biggest trading partner, and U.S. markets trust connected Mexico for caller nutrient and galore different things. The economical narration whitethorn now simply beryllium “too large to fail.”

Mexico besides depends connected nan money sent location by citizens surviving overseas — mostly successful nan United States. Last year, Mexican migrants sent location a grounds $63.3 billion. Income from remittances surpasses what Mexico earns from tourism and exports of lipid and astir manufactured goods.

Will Mexico's ballot show a caller Latin populism?

Latin America has seen periodic swings from near to correct for decades. Free-spending presidents friends to Iran aliases Russia person been quickly replaced by neoconservatives, and vice versa.

A populist activity appears to person interrupted nan region’s normal pendulum swings pinch 2 cardinal events successful caller months — nan overwhelming reelection of El Salvador’s hardline president Nayib Bukele, and nan triumph for libertarian firebrand Javier Milei successful Argentina.

A triumph for Morena connected June 2 could entrench populism for 12 years successful Mexico, fundamentally reviving nan aged thought of a charismatic, nationalist, hand-out authorities arsenic nan perennial statement successful power.

Hungary has kept its populist president successful powerfulness for astir 15 years, but nan world grounds is held by Mexico’s aged ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, aliases PRI, which held nan presidency for — hold for it — 71 uninterrupted years.

Will Mexican populist survive?

López Obrador has tried mightily to destruct checks and balances, regulatory oversight and nan domiciled of non-governmental organizations. He has accumulated much centralized powerfulness than immoderate president since nan heyday of nan PRI successful nan 1970s, an era for which he expresses unfastened nostalgia.

His main instrumentality of governance has been nan army, which has built a portfolio of railways, an airline, airports and hotels. Mexico’s army, dissimilar galore different Latin American nations’, has not go progressive successful authorities done coups aliases candidacies since nan 1940s. But galore interest that nan Morena party’s continued dominance might endanger that aged arrangement.

Whoever wins, nan outgoing president is leaving a heap of ambitious, unfinished projects, obligations and debt. López Obrador has pledged to discontinue wholly from authorities aft he leaves office, but fewer group judge that a man who has fundamentally spent each waking infinitesimal for nan past 30 years driving toward his governmental goals will springiness that up truthful easily.

The Associated Press

The Associated Press